Sanity Africa, a leading Pan-African civil society group known for its forecasting in Ghanaian politics, has released its Phase Two survey for the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) upcoming presidential primary. The new data suggests a significant shift in delegate sentiment as the party prepares for the January 2026 general elections.
According to the October report, Kennedy Ohene “Ken” Agyapong now commands 53.1% of the delegates’ support, an increase of 1.7 percentage points since Phase One in July. Meanwhile, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) trails with 39.0%, suffering a 3.2-point drop in backing.
Trailing behind are Dr. Bryan Acheampong with 5.0% (up 1.9 points), Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum at 2.0% (down by 1.0 point), and Ing. Kwabena A. Agyepong at 0.9% (rising slightly from 0.3%). The survey, conducted between July and October 2025, drew responses from 15,000 delegates across Ghana’s 276 constituencies, part of a voter roll exceeding 218,000 delegates. It claims a 99% confidence level with a 5% margin of error.
Regionally, Ken Agyapong leads in 10 out of 16 regions, including dominant performances in Ashanti (54.8%), Central (69.0%), and Eastern (54.8%). Dr. Bawumia retains strength in six regions, particularly in the Northern areas such as North East (70.0%) and Upper West (60.2%). The contest is tighter in regions like Bono East, Savannah, and Upper East, where margins are narrow.
Notably, Dr. Bawumia’s support in North East surged from 51.6% to 70.0%, while Ken strengthened his position in Volta (50.8%) and Bono (53.0%). In the Eastern Region, Dr. Bryan Acheampong made substantial gains, reaching 21.7% in his home base.
Sanity Africa notes these shifts highlight evolving delegate preferences, shaped by campaign messaging, endorsements, and regional dynamics. Though Ken currently holds an advantage, the survey authors caution that the race remains fluid. The next Phase (Phase Three) is expected in January 2026, and key developments in strategy, endorsements, and voter outreach are likely to influence the final outcome.